Polling Roundup: As Confirmation Hearings Begin, Poll after Poll Shows Republicans on the Wrong of Side Public Opinion

10.12.20

Polling Roundup: As Confirmation Hearings Begin, Poll after Poll Shows Republicans on the Wrong of Side Public Opinion

Since the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg less than a month ago, voters have spoken loud and clear: let the people decide and let the winner of the election fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court. Overwhelming majorities of voters also oppose abolishing the Affordable Care Act and overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, both of which are under grave threat should Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed.

It’s not simply the Republicans’ sham and illegitimate process that voters find wanting. As CNN reported last week, “initial reactions to Barrett are among the worst in CNN and Gallup polling on 12 potential justices dating back to Robert Bork.” Going back to 1987, only Barrett and President Trump’s previous nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, have been underwater in initial polling on their nominations.

Voters also overwhelmingly believe by a 3:1 margin that the Senate should prioritize COVID relief rather than confirming a Supreme Court Justice.

Voters Say Let the People Decide

  • Business Insider: 58% of American voters think the Senate should not fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court vacancy until after the election.
  • Morning Consult: 37% said President Trump should pick Ginsburg’s replacement regardless of who wins on Nov. 3, while 50% said the winner of the November election should make the pick.
  • YouGov: About half of registered voters (51%) do not believe President Trump should appoint a new Supreme Court justice before the presidential inauguration in January 2021. Just 42% percent say the opposite.
  • Reuters: 62% of American adults agreed the vacancy should be filled by the winner of the Nov. 3 matchup between Trump and Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden, while 23% disagreed and the rest said they were not sure.
  • Data for Progress: A majority of voters (53 percent) agree that the seat should be filled after the upcoming election in order to give voters a say in the process.
  • CNBC: Only 37% of voters nationally think Trump should be able to nominate a justice if he loses, while 57% believe he should not.
  • Navigator: By 20-point margin, Americans want the winner of the November election to pick Ginsburg’s replacement and fewer than a third of independents think Trump should immediately nominate a replacement.
  • University of North Florida – Florida: 52% of likely voters say let the people decide while only 42% back a confirmation vote before the election.  
  • NBC-WSJ National: Let the people decide 50%, vote now before the election 38%.
  • Arizona: Only 43% say the Senate should move forward before the end of Trump’s term while 51% say let the people decide.
  • Navigator Research National:
    • 46% say Trump should not have moved forward with a nomination compared to 40% who say he was right to do so.
    • 49% say the nomination should not be considered by the Senate and the people should decide compared to 38% who say it should be considered immediately, before the election.
  • Quinnipiac – South Carolina: 49% say let the people decide to 47% who say Trump should choose now.
  • CBS – North Carolina: 52% to 48%, voters say the winner of the election should pick the new Justice.  
  • CBS – Georgia: 51% to 49%, voters say the winner of the election should pick the new Justice.  
  • NBC/Marist – Michigan: 54% to 37%, voters say the winner of the election should pick the new Justice instead of Trump naming someone immediately. An additional 7% say Trump should wait until after the election.
  • NBC/Marist – Wisconsin: 56% to 37%, voters say the winner of the election should pick the new Justice instead of Trump naming someone immediately. An additional 5% say Trump should wait until after the election.
  • NYT/Siena College:
    • Whom would you like to see appoint the next Supreme Court Justice
      • Winner of election 56%
      • Trump 41%
  • Quinnipiac – Georgia: 52% of likely voters say the vacancy should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, while 45% say President Trump should fill it before the election.
  • Quinnipiac – Florida, Pennsylvania, and Iowa: Voters in all three states say let the people decide:
    • Florida: 54% to 41%.
    • Pennsylvania: 54% to 44%.
    • Iowa: 50% to 44%.
  • Fox News: 54% don’t think a president should get to appoint someone to a lifetime position this close to the election, while 44% think it is the responsibility of current leaders to act to fill the vacancy created by Justice Ginsburg’s death.
  • Reuters/Ipsos: 54% of voters said the winner of the election should fill the Supreme Court vacancy.
  • Morning Consult: A majority (54 percent) of voters — including 75 percent of Democrats, 46 percent of independents and 30 percent of Republicans — who said the Senate should definitely or probably delay hearings following Trump’s diagnosis.
  • Washington Post/ABC News: By a 52% to 44% margin, voters say filling this Supreme Court seat should be left to the winner of the presidential election and a Senate vote next year.

Voters Want Biden, Not Trump to Choose Next Supreme Court Justice

  • CNN National: Voters prefer Joe Biden to Donald Trump 57% to 41% when it comes to the Supreme Court.
  • NBC-WSJ National: Biden leads Trump by 12 points on picking Supreme Court Justices.
  • NYT/Siena College Pennsylvania: Voters trust Biden more to pick a Supreme Court Justice 51% to 44%. Independents prefer Biden by a 14-point margin.
  • Washington Post – Pennsylvania: By 52% to 43%, voters trust Biden over Trump to pick a Justice.  
  • NYT/Siena College – Pennsylvania: 51% to 44%, voters trust Biden over Trump to pick a Justice.  
  • NYT/Siena College: Whom would you trust to do a better job of choosing a Supreme Court justice?
    • Joe Biden 50%
    • Trump 43%
  • NYT/Siena College Florida: Voters trust Biden more to pick a Supreme Court Justice 48% to 43%. Independents prefer Biden by a 13-point margin.
  • Quinnipiac – Florida, Pennsylvania, and Iowa: Voters in all three states says Biden would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations: Florida: 51% for Biden compared to 42% for Trump; Pennsylvania: 53% for Biden compared to 42% for Trump; Iowa: 48% for Biden compared to 46% for Trump.

Roe v. Wade and the ACA Have the Overwhelming Support of Voters, Barrett Threatens Both

  • 50% say they would like to see the ACA remain in place, while 43% say they would like to see it ended.
  • 55% agree with Roe v. Wade, while 37% disagree
  • NYT/Siena College:
    • Abortion should be
      • Always or mostly legal 60%
      • Always or mostly illegal 33%
    • Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act
      • Support 57%
      • Oppose 38%
  • Fox News:
    • By a margin of 62% to 27%, likely voters want Roe to stand.
    • By a margin of 64% to 32%, likely voters want the ACA kept in place.
  • Reuters/Ipsos:
    • Abortion should be legal in most cases: 60%.
    • The Affordable Care Act (ACA, or sometimes called Obamacare) should be repealed completely: 39%
  • Quinnipiac – Georgia: Likely voters want the ACA to remain in place (52% to 43%) and they agree with the Roe v. Wade decision (58% to 35%).
  • Quinnipiac – Florida, Pennsylvania, and Iowa:
    • By wide margins, likely voters want the ACA to remain in place:
      • Florida: 56% to 36%
      • Pennsylvania: 57% to 36%
      • Iowa: 53% to 40%
    • By even wider margins, likely voters agree with Roe:
      • Florida: 68% to 23%
      • Pennsylvania: 64% to 28%
      • Iowa: 61% to 30%
  • Washington Post/ABC News: By a margin of 62% to 24%, voters want the Supreme Court to uphold Roe v. Wade.  

By 3:1 Margin, Voters Believe Covid-19 Relief Takes Precedence Over Filling Vacant SCOTUS Seat

  • The Hill: 74% of voters compared to 26% want Senate to take on COVID-19 relief over confirming a SCOTUS nominee
  • Date for Progress: 65% prefer COVID-19 legislation over confirming vacant SCOTUS seat